Thursday, October 17, 2013

First Draft of Intro and Literature Review: An analysis of Race-Neutral Alternatives to Affirmative Action in Texas Universities

Race Neutral Admissions Policies: Draft of Intro and Lit Review
Anthony Vincent LeClair
17 October 2013













Race Neutral Admissions Policies
Introduction
A representative democracy requires equal representation.  If this condition is not met, then power, privilege and access to resources is consolidated, and our whole U.S. political experiment cannot live up to the goals of its charter.  Unfortunately, this is an all too distinct reality of our country.  Our populace is not equally represented within our political establishment, and I am afraid this will continue be the case until we work to create the structural circumstances that will allow for all in our citizenry the access to a foundational education that provides for economic mobility and prepares the public for thoughtful participation in the public process.  At present, there are historical, social, and economic barriers to representation within our education system, which in turn, limits participation in our society.  Though the paper ahead will not be arguing that education is the panacea to all of our social problems, we have, over several decades, seemingly since President Lyndon B. Johnson’s ushering of “Great Society” policies, placed an undue burden on our education system.  We have bought into the idea of meritocracy, without examining the foundations necessary for a merit-based system of education to work.  Nor, have we thought long and hard about the goals for which that “merit” pertains.  For many, education has become the ticket to greater prestige, economic prosperity and a sense of inclusion within society.  So, it is here at which we are left to tinker with policy to create the structural conditions within education to achieve greater demographic representation within our political process.
            Since the dual 2007 U.S. Supreme Court decisions were rendered on Parents Involved in Community Schools v. Seattle Public Schools and Meredith v. Jefferson County Board of Education, the last bastion of equity based admissions and attendance policies based on any racial variable was struck from the public arena of Kindergarten to 12th grade (K-12) education.  Thus, the public university system is the only place we can hope to have any mechanism designed to control for the unequal schooling experiences between our social and economic elites and our students who come from minority and low socioeconomic communities. 
            In this paper I will focus on the Texas context.  It is here that shifts in racial and economic patterns are shifting the quickest, de facto segregation as a consequence of de jure segregation is prominent, and where the most successful, though insufficient race-neutral admissions policy has been heralded as the best way to move forward after several landmark U.S. Supreme Court decisions have made it nearly impossible to achieve an accurate societally representative student body within our universities.  Below, I will discuss the court cases and the policies enacted as a result of landmark U.S. Supreme Court Cases that will give us an understanding of where admissions policies in Texas stand today.
Background
In 1997, the Texas Legislature had a major task before it: finding a race-neutral admissions policy that would act to increase racial, geographic, socioeconomic and ethnic minority access and participation in the state’s flagship universities without employing a race-based affirmative action policy, which had just been struck down by the 5th Circuit Court in Hopwood v. Texas (1996). The response was House Representative Irma Rangel’s H.B. 588, which granted automatic admissions to any high school student graduating in the first decile (top ten percent) of his or her senior class. The law would be popularly referred to as the Top Ten Percent Plan.
             In essence, the law would work to increase minority enrollment by taking advantage of the racial and economic segregation that currently maintains in Texas high schools (Horn & Flores, 2012). While students from traditional feeder schools, in high socioeconomic settings would continue to frequent Texas A&M and The University of Texas at Austin, the law would also create access for schools that did not have a strong history of feeding into the state’s flagship institutions.  This means each of the flagships, should the students apply, would now be receiving students from high schools with high minority populations and a likely history of low university enrollment.
            This review of literature on the Texas Top Ten Percent Plan (TTP) and other race-neutral admissions plans will employ the breadth of extant research to explain the intended and actual effects of the law over the last 15 years. These peer-reviewed research studies, institutional and governmental reports all draw a very similar picture of the landscape at The University of Texas and Texas A&M University, post Hopwood and Texas Top Ten Percent. Chief among this research has been the work of Dr. Marta Tienda at Princeton (formerly of The University of Texas at Austin). Dr. Tienda has spent the last 15 years studying the Top Ten Percent Law. Though she and her fellow researchers vary in explanation and slightly in response, the numbers are consistent and rendered stark. During the period encompassing the Top Ten Percent Law, enrollment at the University of Texas at Austin has exploded while shares of the incoming freshmen class have moved only modestly in a positive direction for African American and Hispanic student populations (Andrews, Ranchhold, & Sathy, 2010; Campbell, 2004; Dietz, Hamilton, Heilig, Reddick, & Rodriguez , 2011; Dickson, 2006: Holley & Spencer, 1999; Horn & Flores, 2012; Long & Tienda, 2008; Niu & Tienda, 2010; Tienda & Sullivan, 2009).
            Representative of these findings is the following excerpt, “Ten years of institutional data shows that Black and Latina/o student enrollment has increased in the midst of the Top Ten Percent Plan.  In 2008, Black students made up 5.6 percent of all incoming freshmen and Latina/os made up 19.9 percent, representing an increase of 2.9 and 7.3 percentage points from 1997, respectively” (Dietz, Hamilton, Heilig, Reddick & Rodriguez, 2011). Though certainly significant, these numbers are not near the goal of achieving flagship universities reflecting the demographic make-up of the state.
The Data
            Over the 15-year period under this law, there have been a handful of studies on the effectiveness of TTP. The vast majority of these studies are focused on the University of Texas at Austin, as it has been disproportionately affected. Texas A&M has been affected, but is a distant second, and thus has had little quantitative focus in the research. One would think there would be a great deal of research on such an important policy initiative that promotes a race-neutral alternative to affirmative action policies, for it does not suffer a lack of interest. Though interest is high, access to comprehensive statistics that would paint a definitive picture of TTP’s impact are not available to researchers.
            As such, there are major difficulties with accurately sifting through the dearth of available data. Much of this data is kept at the individual local high school level. The composition of a given school’s highest decile graduate group is not available to researchers, nor is it kept at The Texas Education Agency (TEA), nor the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB). This is problematic, as we must rely on the individual university breakdowns of those who applied, and thus were admitted, under TTP and those who applied but did not qualify for automatic admissions. This means a student must actually apply to a university in the state of Texas for anyone to know whether that student graduated in the top ten percent of his or her class, and if that student chose to forgo the flagship university in favor of something else.
            This is the case because a student’s transcript, originating from his or her high school, is the only document that states whether or not a student is within the top ten percent of his or her class cohort. If the student does not apply (not all do), then the student is not included in the data. Thus, we have a very skewed picture of how the top ten percent plan is playing-out within our graduating classes, and across race and ethnicity. This information would be especially helpful in understanding where recruitment efforts need to be focused and if targeted financial aid might entice students to enroll at a flagship institution. 
            In order to overcome these obstacles, each of the studies employed one or more of the following data sources to gauge the effectiveness of the Top Ten Percent Law: Individual, longitudinal university demographic breakdowns for each incoming freshmen class, demographic admittance and enrollment data from the THECB, and student surveys from the Texas Higher Education Opportunity Project (THEOP).  To date, no study has been published that relies on the sensitive data held in our state’s Education Research Centers (ERCs). Using data from the ERCs would give us the most accurate picture of which students are choosing which post-secondary institutions, while also giving us a definitive look at how high school top ten percent demographics are shaking out across the state.
            The first two data sources, those at the university level and those from the THECB, are fairly easy to obtain and analyze. The third, however, was an attempt to get an idea of the TTP landscape from the student choice perspective. The THEOP studied student/family planning and enrollment behavior for over 30,000 students in a representative sample of Texas high schools. This project relied on a series of in-depth surveys of sophomore and senior students. THEOP data, used in conjunction with the purely quantitative statistics on enrollment, attempts to explain why student populations are choosing one institution type over another, or choosing not to attend at all. Using all of these data resources, researchers studying TTP have all come to very similar conclusions regarding its effects, though there are a number of explanations for why the numbers are only modestly positive for particular groups with regards to Texas’ flagship institutions.
The Effects of H.B. 588
            Without doubt, the greatest effect of The Texas Top Ten Percent Law (TTP) has been a dramatic increase in geographic representation of Texas students at the University of Texas at Austin (Saenz, 2007; Niu & Tienda, 2010; Long, Saenz, & Tienda, 2010; Powers, 2012). This has been the most consistently positive finding attributed to TTP. Students from more counties around the state have access to and are enrolling in Texas flagship universities than at any other time in the state’s history. Prior to H.B. 588, UT had, on average, drawn nearly half of its incoming freshmen class from only 59 of the 1,500 high schools around Texas (Saenz, 2007). These are high schools throughout their histories have sent the majority of their seniors to UT and A&M. Under TTP the number of top high schools it took to fill fifty percent of UT’s incoming class increased to 104.
            Looking more broadly, however, the number of schools that sent one or more of their graduating class members to UT went from 674 in 1997 to over 900 within the first ten years of TTP (Long, Saenz & Tienda, 2010). This is a very significant increase that points toward one target where the law has achieved desired outcomes at the University of Texas at Austin, and these numbers continue to increase at a significant rate. According to a University of Texas report to the Governor of Texas in the fall of 2012, the number of high schools sending students to UT has risen to a peak of 1,104 (Powers, 2012).
            Similar increases are not found at Texas A&M University (TAMU) under TTP. A likely explanation is offered by Long, Saenz and Tienda (2010), historically A&M has drawn from a greater number of high schools than had UT and these feeding patterns are far more entrenched at TAMU. Unfortunately, these numbers are not as positive for minority populations at the public flagships of our state during this same time period. Though the number of black and Latino/a students attending institutions of higher education in the state of Texas are greater than ever before, the numbers at our public flagships are not as robust.
            Looking at raw TTP percentages, first-time freshmen Latino/a student enrollment numbers at the University of Texas at Austin have increased approximately 7% points. This number is complicated by the significant increase in the Latino/a population in the state (Alfonso & Calcagno, 2007). During the time Latino/as have also greatly increased in the share of Texas’ high school graduates. Prior to the Hopwood decision, Hispanic students made up 29% of the state’s graduating class. By 2004, that number had increased to 35% (Tienda & Sullivan, 2009). In 2009, the share of Latino/a high school graduates reached 40% (THECB, 2012). Unfortunately, this means the true story of these numbers is that admissions and enrollment rates under the Top Ten Percent Plan have not been commensurate with the growth in graduation rates for Hispanic students (Harris & Tienda, 2012).
H.B. 588 Effects on African American Enrollment:
            The effects of TTP are less complicated for African Americans, because the total population share has neither grown nor decreased dramatically during the affected time period. Two major studies have looked exclusively at African American enrollment during TTP; both reach similar conclusions. Though African American students are applying to colleges at a much higher rate than at any other time in the past, and while many are forgoing attendance at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), they are relatively less likely to apply to The University of Texas at Austin and at Texas A&M (Dietz, et al., 2011). According to the table provided by Dr. Choquette Hamilton, if students apply to UT-Austin, they are likely to enroll (See Table in Appendix). The research has found that African American students are less likely to apply to flagship universities, and TTP has done little to change this trend. In order to understand why this is the case, we need to look at the barriers to college entrance beyond admittance.
Why Hasn’t H.B. 588 Increased Representation at the Flagship Universities?
            Looking at the dichotomous white/non-white ratio at the University of Texas at Austin recently, might cause a person to believe that Top Ten Percent is doing an excellent job of increasing the share of racial minority student populations at the university. That metric is far too simple. As of 2010, the incoming class was, for the first time, less than 50% white (The University of Texas at Austin, 2010). However, a closer look at the distribution among the non-white student population yields important nuance. The breakdown was as follows: White 48%, Hispanic 23%, Asian 17%, Black 5%, and Foreign 4%. The percentage of black students is the same as it was immediately following the Hopwood decision. Only the share of Hispanic students has moved in a significantly positive direction, though, again, there are population trends that account for this increase.
            There are many reasons students in the top ten percent of their graduating class do not apply to a public four-year university. Low-income Hispanic and African American student populations are far likelier to enroll in community colleges in the state, as cost is a major barrier to access. This significantly affects the Top Ten Percent Plan in a negative manner. For students who have earned automatic admissions under the law, enrolling in a community college is anathema to the goals of the law, increasing minority populations at public four-year institutions. A student’s eligibility to apply under TTP is determined by their “first time freshmen” status. As such, a student cannot pursue their core courses at a community college in a cost saving measure, without forgoing her or his eligibility. However, many students are choosing this option prior to attending a 4-year institution.
            This is particularly problematic because, a great majority of students intending to move to 4-year institutions first enroll in one of the state’s community colleges. In fact, according to a recent CCRC report, Texas is the leader in students using the community college program as a steppingstone to its universities (Jenkins, 2013). The following excerpt may help to explain just how significantly this issue plays out:
            Of eligible TTPP students, about 40 percent of Latina/o students and 30 percent   of blacks choose the two flagship universities. As a result, 70 percent of eligible black and 60 percent of eligible Latina/o students turned down the opportunity to attend the most selective institutions of higher education in Texas despite their preferential admission (Dietz, Hamilton, Heilig, Reddick & Rodriguez, 2011).  Perhaps, the most important reason the share of socioeconomically disadvantaged minority student populations has not increased much high school students simply do not know that the law exists. This was one of the most significant findings in the work done by the THEOP. Students in low SES schools are far less likely to be aware of the fact that their class rank can be their ticket to one of the state’s flagship universities (Niu &Tienda, 2010a).
            There are likely two reasons that students in urban schools are persistently unaware of TTP.  First, the turnover rate for high school staff, including guidance counselors, teachers and principals in low SES schools is considerable (Boyd, Lankford, Loeb, & Wyckoff, 2005). This ensures that students will receive inconsistent information about higher education opportunities, if they receive that information at all.
            Secondly, the role of a high school counselor has changed substantially during the era of NCLB, especially in low achieving schools that are disproportionately under threat of sanctions. In other words, the high schools that TTP was designed to benefit most. Often, these counselors are tasked with administering state examinations and are responsible for the data that is necessary for meeting the State and Federal accountability requirements (Crump, Duffy, Farrell, Giordano, & Paneque, 2008). This leaves very little time for counselors to meet with students to explain the top ten percent law, let alone letting each student know of his or her class rank after each semester’s grading period. This is failure at the most basic level of the implementation and likely the easiest to fix. However, there are many who do not believe the law can achieve its intended purpose.
Texas Top Ten Percent Compared to Affirmative Action Policies:
            The most common theme echoed throughout each of the research studies was a simple fact, enrollment rates for minority students were highest during the pre-Hopwood period, and came the closest to recovering after Hopwood was rendered irrelevant in the Grutter v. Bollinger (2003) decision. The 2003 decision allowed the University of Texas to return to an affirmative action policy, which relied on race as one of many factors in determining the non-automatic admissions for its incoming class.
            The enrollment numbers dealing with the period after the Hopwood decision was rendered and before H.B. 588 was implemented are telling, “[f]reshman enrollment [at UT] dropped by 4.3% for Hispanic students and by 33.8% for black students. At Texas A&M, freshmen enrollment for Hispanic and black students dropped by 12.6% and 29% respectively” (Holley & Spencer, 1999). Corroborating this decline and offering present day implications, Harris and Tienda explain:
            First, Hispanics’ application rates to the Texas flagship universities fell after         affirmative action was banned.  Even with the declines in application rates for    Hispanics since the repeal of affirmative action, our results suggest that Hispanics             would gain substantial representation in Texas flagship universities if they      maintained the admission shares they held during affirmative action. (2012)
How to Increase Minority Enrollment at Flagships in Texas:
            The cost of university study has been and continues to be a major struggle for low-income students of all backgrounds, but African American and Hispanic students are being disproportionately affected. Targeted recruitment and easing of the upfront costs to these universities, such as provided by The Longhorn Opportunity Scholarship at the University of Texas and the Century Scholarship at Texas A&M, do affect admissions decisions for students of low socioeconomic means (Andrews, Ranchhod, & Sathy, 2010; Tienda & Long; Tienda & Niu, 2006; Harris & Tienda, 2012).  Researchers contend that if TTP eligible students do not receive targeted aid and intervention, they are less likely to apply to the expensive public flagship universities. In fact, a 2012 study by Horn and Flores has shown that targeted aid significantly and positively impacts TTP student enrollment decisions toward the public flagship institutions.
The Immediate Impact on The University of Texas at Austin
            As has been established, H.B. 588 has impacted the University of Texas at Austin to a much greater degree than any other university in Texas. In 1998, the first year of eligibility for admissions under the law, automatic admissions made up 41% of UT’s incoming freshmen class. By 2010, the year prior to S.B. 175 taking effect, the number of automatic admits enrolled was over 83%. If this pattern were to continue, automatic admissions would dictate 100% of UT’s incoming freshmen class in the near future. The effects of which would be many.
            If 100% of UT’s freshmen class admissions were comprised of TTP eligible students, according to the literature, it would hurt efforts to increase minority enrollment, close admissions for out-of-state and foreign student, and require the university to accommodate a persistent and ever increasing number of students each year (Tienda & Sullivan, 2009). The University of Texas would lose control of its enrollment numbers, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that one of the largest universities in the world could see an enrollment of over 60,000 students in the near future (Martinez & Martinez, 2004).  The University does not have the capacity to meet the population demand.
Notes on moving forward….
            In a portentous report, released just two years after the implementation of TTP, the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights released a report that sums up the majority of researcher attitudes toward the continued implementation of the Texas Top Ten Percent Law:
            It is doubtful that the Texas Plan will be able to achieve enrollment figures in          undergraduate and graduate school similar to pre-Hopwood numbers. But, at         least, the Ten Percent Plan makes it possible for some students to attend UT-        Austin who after Hopwood might not have been included. (U.S. Commission on          Civil Rights, Washington D.C., 2000).
Though many find the basis for the law to be an untenable compromise, as it leaves persistent issues of high school minority segregation untouched, and actively relies upon it, ultimately, it has increased minority representation better than no policy at all. Below, researcher Campbell relates her uncomfortable compromise with the law.
            [I]t is clear that a plan that relies on the persistence of racial segregation is counterintuitive to stated goals of promoting racial diversity both on campus and     in our society…Providing more socioeconomically challenged minorities with the   opportunity to receive a college education, a proven factor in achieving a higher    socioeconomic status, could work to end affirmative action by providing    minorities not just with an opportunity to go to college, but with an opportunity to    participate fully in an American society that has historically excluded people’s      full participation in business and politics based on money. By increasing the    potential of minorities to earn, the potential voice and representation of minorities             could be increased as well. (Campbell, 2004)
And, Horn & Flores:
            [T]hese findings suggest both that the Top Ten Percent Plan has not proven to be             a successful stand-alone race-neutral alternative in the creation of diverse student      bodies from which the benefits of that diversity can be reaped. (2012)






























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